Before I continue, understand that this is my opinion as a malaysian, not some analyst. All statistical measure here were just of general understanding and taken off mainstream media, which should undoubtedly be correct. You might agree with my views, but I expect many to disagree, and some being ah bengs being vulgar. You might call me naive, and maybe I am, but I'm entitled to my own views, so either you comment on it with some civility or don't comment at all.
In a instant move last wednesday the government raised the fuel prices from RM1.92 to Rm2.70, also adopting a float system using market price less a subsidy of 30c per litre subject to review every month. That jump alone of over 40% means that a full tank of petrol that has previously cost Rm75 would now cost RM105. Assuming drivers pump their petrol once a week, thats RM133 higher than before. Ouch.
So being simple minded malaysians, seeing a bigger hole in our pockets we all vent our anger full out. Facebook hate groups pops up like hot cakes, hundreds, if not thousands of angry bloggers, comments, opinion letters is seen everywhere, photoshoped pictures of the PM, some with less civility than others, opposition turning this unrest into their advantage - still promising cheaper fuel.
Am I being supportive of the fuel price increase? No, as needless to say, it affects me as badly as it affects any driver. But world fuel prices that has jumped from $US40 per barrel to US$130 in 18 months, an increase of close to 225%, is not a thing that should be taken lightly.
In anger, in frustration, in hate, in spite, in bitterness and in short-sightedness, the people couldn't care less about subsidies, global economic slowdown, uncertain future, depleting reserves, and all of that - what is seen is that there's a bigger hole in our wallets right now and people are simply unhappy. On top of that- electric tarriffs jump 11-28% at the very same time.
So where does this leads us now? Inflation - at least in the short run is guaranteed. Suddenly literally everything goes up in prices, except salary of course. Businesses force to cut costs will find themselves off loading extra staff, unemployment soars. Some businesses will die, especially the small to medium ones exposed to high risk associated with fuel and electric costs. Food becomes more expensive, and malaysia's obesity problem will all but vanish. Everything from the things we eat to the tissue paper we wipe our rear ends with will go up in price - everything has to get to you somehow and that somehow uses fuel.
NST reports that inflation is supposed to increase by 1% by this move without citing the source (Al Jazeera English News, 2008), but I wonder where the logic comes from. You increase fuel prices by 40% and electric tariff by 28% but expect a 1% inflation rate? Being donkey optimistic, aren't we now? Don't kid yourself and don't kid the people.
Seems pretty bad, doesn't it? Suddenly everyone's eating less, everyone's using less toilet paper, everyone's becoming healthier as they eat less and walk more..
What can be done? Frankly I'm tired of hearing 'ubah gaya hidup', especially a hilarious video clip circulating around on that (watch it at the end of this post). Frankly it seems unfortunately true and we probably have to just wear slippers to work from now onwards.. On a less extreme terms, things have to change.
What now? the money the government has now taken away from subsidies must be channeled to bloody damn good used if it was to do any justice to itself. And by that I mean real changes that must be seen, not empty promises and words. Food prices must go down with more money allocated to food subsidies. Public transport must improve - there's never enough emphasis on that. This will, make or break, the current government in the next elections.
Public transport now, or at least the way it was a year ago when I last taken it, is bordering absurd. Buses without proper signs or numbers stopping just about anywhere they like, coming at times up to the whim of bus drivers (normally an hour once or 2 hours for a bus in subang), with some buses in condition as bad as though it has gone through war carrying soldiers through crossfire shootouts, and at times passengers hanging on to their lives as the bus makes its rounds. KTM is no different- whatever time is shown as 'remaining time until the train comes' - multiple that by 3 and thats when the train will probably come. And by the time it comes, the people that has gathered at the platform waiting for the moving tin can to come is tremendous, and get pushed around as everyone pushes their way into the train, not even allowing passengers to step out of the train. Malaysians at their best.
If the government is going to remove the subsidy practically safe for a 30c per litre subsidy, it shud also remove taxes on cars except for a RM30 tax. its ridiculous how much we pay for decent foreign cars, not cars like BMW or Mercs but just basic standard size sedan. I'd rather it removed the taxes on cars than to just give me Rm600 rebate every year, or both would be the best case. Here's an opinion which I agree to: Click here .. For those who are too lazy to open the link, what this person is saying is that by paying ridiculous amounts of tax on buying a car, we have already 'pre-paid' our subsidies in advance, and therefore we are deserving on the subsidies - which is very true. I recommend that u read the original article.
Anyway back to topic, is the government to blame? Probably not - at least I wont be one who will. I never believed subsidies worked in the long run, for the economy in whole.
Will the opposition, if it ever takes over as federal govt, be able to keep its promise to reduce petrol prices? Probably not - unless it wants to throw the country into bankruptcy and debt. if they say they can do it, I would definitely like to know how.
Will petrol prices ever come down? Probably not in the near future - and I'm not sure about this - but a global recession is due around this time again, judging from past historic events, and it could be what the world needs right now to stop this spiral of inflation.
What could the normal people do now? "Ubah Gaya Hidup".. carpool more often, walk and cycle to nearby shops instead of drive, save electric where possible, cut extra spending on luxury items.. and.. consider changing your car if it drinks more petrol than you drink water..
What should the normal people not do? Whine and bitch about it. or worse, make some photoshop pic of the third finger and put in on someone's face. like that even helps anything. Hitting the streets and protest is no different than a kid wailing and thrashing to get something he wants. Don't play the blame game without at least knowing the general situation. Don't start a name-calling war - it just highlights immaturity and an ah beng mentality.
What about businesses? I forsee that the first thing they'll do is to pass on the costs to consumers. But the people will reward those who can absorb as increase in cost as they can, passing extra cost down only when its not possible to absorb any more costs.. Find ways to improve efficiency in processes, especially in logistics and supply, manufacturing processes. I know its easier said than done, but its still possible. This applies to small n medium businesses - big fellas have big professionals to do it for them.
Farfetched benefits? Now that people eat less, drive less, carpool more, walk and cycle more, use less electric, suddenly everyone's healthier - and greener. less medical bills, no nid for gym membership, and malaysia suddenly becomes a greener place without the need of any tough laws. Roads are less likely to be frequently jammed with cars.. And it goes on and on. Sounds stupid? it probably is when what everyone only cares about is that extra cash they have to fork out every month.
Bottomline? Make changes. RM2.70 may be alot to pay for petrol, but understand that these are market forces beyond the control of any nation. If the government does as it says it will do - there is still hope for a brighter future. Hope hard.
Lastly, I stress again that these are just my opinions. I believe it is still my legal right to make opinions. If you notice, I'm neither at neither two ends of the extreme. I obviously am not very happy to pay more for petrol and goods, but neither am I venting vulgar hateful words at the govt for raising prices.
Oh one very last thing.. Link to story - Hahaha...
Picture of the post:
First Video posted in my blog! - this is the "Ubah Gaya Hidup Vid" mentioned in my post.. Let's see if your malay still hold up good enough to understand it.. ;)
Logging off,
Lawy3rz
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